Global equities entered 2026 on the heels of a robust 2025. Despite constant headlines surrounding tariffs, shifting central bank policies, inflation debates, and escalating geopolitical tensions, global equity markets demonstrated impressive strength. Fixed-Income markets, while positive, lagged, as highlighted by the FTSE Canadian Universe Bond Index’s modst 2.6% return.
As 2026 began, optimism was the prevailing mood. Investors anticipated eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued productivity gains from rapid advances in artificial intelligence. By February, several global indices had achieved fresh all-time highs, supported by steady earnings and strong liquidity. Yet confidence shifted quickly.
A Geopolitical Jolt to Start the Year
On January 3rd, the United States executed Operation Absolute Resolve, resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The news produced a sharp, though short-lived, bout of volatility across global markets. Oil prices initially spiked before stabilizing, given Venezuela’s limited near-term production capacity.
AI: Transformational, but Not Without Risks
Artificial intelligence remains a defining investment theme. Corporate spending in the hundreds of billions continues to fuel innovation and support earnings in several mega-cap technology leaders. However, valuations have become increasingly stretched, raising questions about the durability of AI-led returns.
CUSMA Review: A Critical Watchpoint for Canada
For Canadian investors, the upcoming CUSMA review is a significant macroeconomic event. With the United States as Canada’s dominant trading partner, any shift in the agreement may influence market sentiment and corporate earnings. Volatility may rise as negotiations unfold.
Middle East War and Oil Flows
Recent developments involving Iran have added new complexity to global markets. Extended disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly elevate oil prices, increase production and transportation costs, potentially reignite inflationary pressures, and negatively impact the global economy.
Positioning for a Volatile 2026
Given the confluence of factors: geopolitical shocks, stretched valuations, uncertain central bank policy, and potential supply-side inflation risks, we expect market volatility to remain elevated through 2026.
As always, a robust investment process must consider not only how portfolios perform during periods of strength, but also how they withstand periods of turbulence. This environment reinforces the value of disciplined diversification, risk-aware positioning, and a long-term perspective grounded in fundamentals.
Provided by:
Yaw Boadu
Portfolio Manager, Quintessence Wealth
